In 2024, electricity and gas prices were highly volatile. Such volatility can be attributed to various factors, in particular difficult weather conditions, short- and long-term maintenance and repair work at production plants, as well as transmission capacity limitations both in Estonia and in neighbouring countries. In 2024, Estonia imported more electricity than it exported. Table 1 shows the import, export, domestic production and consumption of electricity in Estonia.
| Import of electricity | 5553 |
| Export of electricity | 2656 |
| Domestic production | 5248 |
| Domestic consumption including network losses | 8145 |
Tabel 1. More detailed data on Estonian electricity (MWh)1
The average electricity exchange price in the Estonian price area in 2024 was 87.27 €/MWh, or 8.73 cents/kWh. The highest average exchange price for electricity was in January at 126.48 €/MWh. The maximum electricity exchange price was recorded on 5 January 2024, peaking at 1,896 €/MWh between 7pm and 8pm. The minimum electricity exchange price was –19.96 €/MWh, which occurred on 25 August between 2pm and 3pm. Figure 1 shows the average monthly exchange prices in 2024.
The average natural gas exchange price in the Estonian price area in 2024 was 37.09 €/MWh. The most expensive average exchange price for gas was in December at 45.50 €/MWh. The market price for gas was at its highest on 4 December 2024, when one megawatt of gas cost 48,62 euros. The minimum exchange price for gas occured on 24 February 2024 at 24.12 €/MWh. Figure 1 shows that the average monthly exchange price for electricity has been more volatile compared to the average exchange price for gas.
Figure 1. Average monthly electricity and gas exchange prices in 2024, €/MWh.2
In 2024, 37% of electricity was generated from non-renewable sources, including oil shale plants. Figure 2 shows electricity production by energy type: out of the total electricity produced in Estonia, 23% was generated from biomass, 19% and 20% from solar and wind energy, respectively, and only 1% from hydropower. This means that in 2024, a total of 63% of electricity was produced from renewable energy sources.
Figure 2. Electricity production by type in Estonia in 20243
Figure 3. Electricity price comparison 2023 vs 2024 in the Estonian price area.4
Figure 3 shows that in 2023 and 2024, hours when the electricity price was 30–100 €/MWh were prevalent in the Estonian price area. Compared to other price ranges, there have also been more prices in the range of 100–200 €/MWh. In both years, hours when the electricity price was between -60 € and 0 € per MWh were the fewest. However, it can be observed that compared to 2023, there were more hours in 2024 when the electricity price was higher than 200 €/MWh. Compared to 2023, there have been more negative prices in 2024, as well as a greater share of low prices in the range of 0–10 €/MWh.
Due to large-scale investments in renewable energy, there is a noticeable increase in electricity price volatility. In 2024, approximately 300 MW of solar power production capacity and 305 MW of wind power production capacity were built. Among the larger investments were the Purtse wind farm with a capacity of 175 MW, the Sopi-Tootsi wind farm with a capacity of 80 MW, and the Aidu wind farm with a capacity of 50 MW.5 The increased volatility resulted in a standard deviation of the electricity price in the Estonian price area of 92% relative to the average electricity price in 2024. In comparison, in 2022 and 2023 the standard deviation of the electricity price in the Estonian price area was accordingly 61% in relation to the average electricity price in 2023, and in 2022 it was 70%. The increased standard deviation in relation to the average price shows that compared to previous years, the Estonian electricity price area has more hours when the electricity price is very high or, conversely, very low, i.e. the price has become more volatile. The increase in the share of renewable energy in electricity generation certainly has an impact on volatility as well.
References:
1 Elering, elektribilanss 2024